Thursday, July 21, 2016
Turkey – Where art thou?
The recent failed coup, President Erdogan nearly lost his life, if the helicopters aimed at the right house, has proved to be a watershed of NUCLEAR proportions, the reality of which we have yet to face, and NO ONE wishes to contemplate.
Already Erdogan has incarcerated 10,000 people and has suspended from duty, 20,000 people from Government Servants and Teachers, most of whose lists he had before the coup attempt and acted upon after, and it is clearly the Coup attempt that has permitted him to act in this heavy handed way, along with a state of emergency of three months just announced, which will give him unlimited power over his subjects.
Like in many Countries in 2016, the Turkish population is also divided, between the Islamist Erdogan supporters and the rest who are secular. THE REST are NOT a UNITED FRONT, so their strength is ONLY in opposition to the leader, and not on ideology, or race etc. Erdogan IT MUST BE REMEMBERED has changed course on some of these political allegiances, like a chameleon, and COULD change again, but unpredictably and unexpectedly.
He is quite likely to execute 500 of the people he dislikes most, and if not executed starve them to death which is in fact worse, and is about to lose any chance of Turkey ever entering he European Union, something that is once and for all dead!
The problem is he is in NATO. All the NATO countries have applauded the fact that the Coup did not succeed, as that is undemocratic! However Erdogan who has been elected President democratically, after holding office as PM for many years, is now an authoritarian President commanding huge popularity, and if comparison was needed what is the difference between him and MR? Only the satakaya!
He is building palaces and a cult to his glory, but herding his flock in the name of Islam, and thereby completely fooling a nation intentionally, just like MR did by using the threat from outside, with some OLD MAN in the US as the current point of his wrath, as having masterminded the Coup attempt.
For Sri Lankans all is familiar, and we know what would have happened if Maithripala Sirisena lost the election, it would be like what Erdogan has done to his Opposition. Arn’t we glad we were able to throw him out rather than get embroiled in a Coup to overthrow the Tyrant! Turkey instead has years of agony, until the people finally realize they have been had the expense of their prosperity.
Just as an aside, Turkey is a large grower of cheap tea to Russia, and also imports tea from Sri Lanka, for their consumption.
The US State Department is busy working out the what if scenarios, and have exhorted the President from committing HR violations, by threats that they will throw Turkey out of NATO and leave it to fight their own battles. There is still the case of the Turkish Fleet which is missing which the US is giving security to, as the Admirals will not go back to Turkey to face the music and the US does not want to annoy the already annoyed Turks!
The EU is frantically saying that if Turkey introduces the death penalty there is NO way that membership will be open to them, and that is NOT working at the moment for Erdogan who is BENT ON REVENGE!
The coup was prevented due to a simple use of facetime to appeal to the people to stand up and fight the Army, which people took literally and did, and called their bluff. While I am personally glad the Coup failed as I don’t want any country under Military Leadership, there is NO guarantee on what the embattled President will do as he has the backing of the Sharia Law adhering religious junkies, who are with him all the way, and it is this constituency that he is listening to at present.
Recep Tyip Erdogan is the leader of 80Million Turks occupying 783,000 sq km or 13 times the size of Sri Lanka, with 4 times the population. Compare this with Syria that has ONLY 15 Million people remaining. If Syria caused so much of a crisis in Europe – “you aint seen nothing yet” when the TURKS decide enough is enough and take to the boats to come over in numbers!
I hope the West is prepared for the Erdogan blood bath, and is ready to SNUFF IT OUT before it happens, to save them from having to provide safe haven for at least 20M anti-Erdogan population who will just not be able to survive in present Turkey under Erdogan rule.
This is serious stuff, which the EU are consulting behind closed doors, and is making plans to counter in case Erdogan begins to go big time on his purge! The UN Security Council is on alert to pass a resolution if the threats become real and nasty. Will any of this make a difference to a power crazy dictator, like Assad, Ghadaffi, Sadam Hussein, Mahinda Rajapakse? The simple answer is NO.
It is only subtle changes, in economic power that will make a difference to Erdogan, lets start with his wealth spirited away. This is the first charge, if he gets out of hand. The second is to bomb to smithereens his palace that he so loves to gloat in and rule from. He will have to remain in the underground bunker if the West decided to flatten that piece of real estate.
As if the world has enough hotspots to concentrate on, the Turks now have added to it. This is potentially the worst of the hotspots, and it is to the Wealthy Turkish Business Men who see their gains of decades, ready to go up in smoke who should be appealing to Erdogan to desist from going overboard.
Turkey is in danger of being a failed state so quickly form being a successful state on the Border of the current flash zone with Iraq and Syria where the Kurds are ready to take any advantage of turmoil They have been lucky as they have consolidated their gains in Iraq and Syria, and once they get their piece of land within Turkey, the new land of Kurdistan will rise from the ashes as an existential threat to Turkey forever.
The other NATO allies are watching these scenes unfold, biting their nails right through, NOT KNOWING WHAT TO DO.
The CIA is at work delving into the mind of this dictator trying to second guess his next move, and trying to pre-empt in favor of CALM under incendiary thoughts. No one is talking about it openly, but are fearful or this mammoth country, where there is a lot of religious freedom at the edge of the Middle East looking as if it will also be turned into an intolerant Islamist State.
As if all the goings on in the Middle East is NOT enough for the Turks, they seem to want the same type of instability in their own Country, and until some wise counsel prevails to cool Erdogan down, there is NO chance of a happy outcome, just delaying the inevitable.
If my previous blog entry is anything to go by, I implore the Turks to tread carefully and NOT support its leader, to an extent that he will let go, and not be swollen headed under the misinterpretation, that the people will tolerate anything they do, as he is doing it for the Country.
The Tourist industry has suffered, unemployment is now spiraling out of control and business confidence is at all time low. Turkish Airlines is at a loss on what to do, as all their passengers, transit out of Ankara, and are looking for an alternative hub that skips Turkey, but are unable to find one in the area of TURMOIL they live under.
It is the people of Turkey that saved Erdogan’s bacon, or should I say, lamb, and it is the people of Turkey to whom I turn to save their Country from their leader!