Saturday, June 27, 2015
“Let the Games Begin” – Entertainment Sri Lanka – General Election Campaign
The announcement came last night on sms to me as it did to all who subscribe to this form, and so we move on to the next gear of excitement, exchange of opinion, and speculation as to what will happen, now that we know ELECTION DAY IS AUGUST 17 and a gazette to that effect has already been published!
The NEW Parliament convenes on September 1st with approximately 80 new faces out of the 225 currently in parliament, meaning 80 retire or do not get re-elected nor get nominations! Nomination lists are accepted between July 6th and 15th
Only on that last day will we know if the two UPFA factions will contest as one or two and if one there is NO likelihood of MR being on the list, as MS will not tolerate a coup to put him in as the PM candidate in a MS Administration at a later date as that possibility open up on a National List slot unless MS has right of veto!
Now the speculation in the UNP is who will get the ticket to contest, and roughly how many seats will they amass. The speculation is between 85 and 95 and NO MORE, as there is certainty that the UNP share of the poll will NOT increase from that of the Presidential due to a level of brand image falling during this honey moon period gone wrong.
From the date nominations close there is only a month for elections and less than 30 days of actual campaigning, let us hope it will free of violence, and other mishaps.
Now that the 20th Amendment is dead in the water, will it be a major promise of the UNP or the UPFA to reintroduce in the next parliament, or will the UNP manifesto call for a new constitution to be drafted by a Constitutional Assembly, and put to a referendum within the first two year period of NATIONAL GOVERNMENT OF THE TWO MAJOR PARTIES.
If so, then the New Constitution will curb the powers of the Presidency much further, leaving only a figurehead like in India. This was NOT permitted by the Supreme Court in the 19th Amendment, and so the Constitution will be most likely put to a referendum, and only a simple majority needed to be passed. This will do away with the two thirds of MPs!
It is likely then that as the 19th or any of the Old Constitution will be superseded, that there will be a General Election under the new electoral system, and MS automatically becomes a mere figurehead President, who will sit out his term, and a new President appointed by the Parliament that gets elected under the terms of the new Constitution and new Electoral system. It is likely at that stage, that RW may come in before he turns 70 as a figurehead President to end his political career!
The Election of August will however NOT be fought on the basis as presented by me above, as it is too much of a complication for the voters to understand, and it will be on populist slogans, each side trying to fool the voter with a bunch of lies about the other, and the voter being confused as to which lie is more believable! God help the voter to sift through this quagmire, but have my word, they will still be able to surprise us beyond belief and prove all the pundits wrong. Either way it will be incumbent upon the President to quash any attempts at destroying the understanding he has with the PM to ensure that there will be a National Government of both major parties with only those who can be trusted!
Let us have faith that no treachery takes place putting personal goals ahead of the Country’s